2026 technology outlook for the channel

Being ahead of what's coming in the next 12 to 18 months is how strong channel business is built.

For the UK channel still fighting the good fight, it’s clear that the "selling boxes" era hasn't just ended; it’s been hit by a wrecking ball.

Here is the lowdown on what Arrow’s latest Opportunity Watch report has to say and, more importantly, what action you can take from it.

The big picture: From "reselling" to "As-a-Service"

The core message from Arrow (and specifically their UK lead, Anthony Dobson) is that the "value" in traditional distribution is thinning out. If your business model relies on moving hardware and taking a margin, you’re on borrowed time.

The report highlights a massive shift toward becoming an "as-a-service partner." For UK MSPs, this means 2026 is the year to stop being a supplier and start being an aggregator. Customers don’t want a list of parts; they want a self-serve engine and outcomes they can pay for monthly.

AI: Moving past the "vibe shift"

We’ve all spent 2025 hearing about AI, but 2026 is where the "AI tax" hits home. Arrow’s outlook suggests that while global AI spend is ballooning, the real money for the channel isn't in the tools themselves—it’s in the governance and integration.

The report warns of an "AI productivity pitfall." Many end-users are finding that AI automation actually creates more work because of the need for human oversight and error correction. This is your "in." MSSPs, in particular, should be looking at AI security and governance. If you can be the partner that makes AI safe and actually functional for a mid-market firm, you’ve got a client for life.

The mid-market land grab

One of the most tactical takeaways for UK partners is the "vendor pivot." Big vendors are increasingly focusing their direct energy on the massive enterprise accounts. This leaves the "managed space"—what we call the mid-market—wide open.

Arrow is betting big on this, and they want you to do the same. They are positioning themselves as your "back office," offering white-labelled cloud platforms and services that smaller MSPs simply couldn't afford to build in-house. The goal? To make a 10-man shop in Birmingham look and feel like a global player.

How this shapes your 2026 growth strategy

So, where should the checkbook be open? The report suggests three key areas:

Skills over Scale: Don't just hire more sales heads. Invest in "build" capabilities—people who can integrate APIs and customise cloud environments. IDC and Arrow both agree that "sell" partners are losing relevance, while "build" and "serve" partners are winning.

Marketplace maturity: If you aren’t using platforms like ArrowSphere Cloud to automate your procurement and billing, you’re wasting margin on admin. 2026 is the year to lean into "frictionless" selling.

Hybrid everything: The report pushes the "Agents of Change" theme. The most successful partners in 2026 will be those bridging the gap between legacy on-prem infrastructure and the "agentic" AI cloud future.

In summary

The 2026 Outlook isn't just a pat on the back for the channel; it’s a bit of a wake-up call. The market is getting more complex, and customers are getting more demanding.

To grow, you need to stop acting like a middleman and start acting like a platform. Use the tools Arrow is putting on the table—the AI Labs, the financing, the cloud management—to offload the "menial" stuff. That frees you up to do the one thing a bot can't: provide actual, human-led strategic advice to your clients.

The "Opportunity" in Opportunity Watch is clear to see, but you’ll need to evolve your service wrap to go and grab it.